Oh, wait. That's not news...

By Pat Keeble, Editor

Thanks to the carefully orchestrated assurance that there will be no competition in most congressional and legislative races, there are only two partisan races that are in any way competitive.

The 11th Congressional District held by Republican Richard Pombo of Tracy is turning out to be a real potboiler with Democrat Jerry McNerney of Pleasanton even showing a slight lead in most recent polls.

In the 15th Assembly District, Democrat Terry Coleman of Danville is showing surprising late strength against incumbent Republican Guy Houston of Livermore, enough to cause the state Democratic Party to pour money into his campaign and the GOP having to try to match it. Each has received more than a quarter of a million dollars from his party sources in October.

First Lady Laura Bush was to make an appearance Friday for Pombo in Livermore. You can bet that Houston will also be displayed prominently. Actor Ben Affleck is scheduled to make an appearance for McNerney over the weekend and Coleman is likely to be on the stand to sop up some of the support.

Thanks to the gerrymandering, Congressmembers George Miller, D-Martinez, and Ellen Tauscher, D-Alamo, and Democratic Assembly nominee Mark DeSaulnier of Concord have already, in effect, won their seats.

The clever carving up of districts to assure election of persons of specific parties is considered one reason for apathy among the voters, since so many races are, for all intents and purposes, uncontested. Nevertheless, Contra Costa County Clerk Steve Weir predicts a turnout of about 62 percent of the county's approximately 488,000 registered voters. That, as usual, would be several percentage points above the state as a whole.

Congressional districts in particular are masterpieces of chaos. They were carved out, in an agreement by majority Democrats and minority Republicans in 2001, to assure (1) re-election of  incumbents and (2) that there would be at least one Republican-favored seat in the primarily Democratic East Bay.

To accomplish that, Tauscher (10th District) was kicked out of most of the San Ramon Valley (although the line is drawn to just barely include Alamo, where she lives) and stretched into San Joaquin, Sacramento and Solano Counties. Miller (7th District) was squashed further north into Solano County (allowed to keep Martinez, where he lives, and Richmond, where he was born). Pombo's very weird 11th District -- two bizarre to describe adequately in words -- was carved out of part of Tauscher's southern territory and extend north to Sacramento County and south through part of Santa Clara County to make it a Republican district.

National politics being what they are, Pombo is having a greater problem this year than in his past few elections. The district is 43.2 percent Republican and 37.5 percent Democratic in voter registration, one which in past years would be firmly GOP. But Democrats, with a vigorous candidate in McNerney making firm inroads, have hope it will be one of a number of GOP House seats nationwide that will switch.

Rancher-developer Pombo of Tracy has a very loyal, very entrenched, very experienced following among agriculture, developer and business interests. The big national issues are not as much in their minds as Pombo's efforts -- which he was elected on in the first place -- to alter the Endangered Species Act and assure them of cheap water.

Pombo was so sure of his ability to beat McNerney that he invited President Bush to speak for him at a local fund-raiser, at a time, of course, when most GOP candidates, even entrenched office-holders, are asking Bush to stay away.

Democrats are pouring money into McNerney's campaign, but the GOP is doing the same for Pombo. The Federal Election Commission reports he had collected nearly $3.5 million in this election cycle as of Oct. 18. He had spent $2.6 million.

McNerney's report wasn't immediately available, but his website indicates he is nearing his $2 million goal in receipts.

A wild card may sit in the new subdivisions that Pombo helped build on former farms. Their homebuyers tend to be younger Bay Area families who retain more liberal ties because of the jobs they commute to daily, well away from the general demographic of the San Joaquin Valley.

Miller and Tauscher make no such drain on the party's resources.

Miller's 7th District is 55.3 percent Democratic and only 22.1 percent Republican.  No Republican could be found to sacrifice his or her time to run against him. His only opponent is Libertarian Party nominee Camden McConnell of Pittsburg.

The Federal Elections Commission reports that Miller has collected nearly $600,000 in this election period, spent $658,000 (including what he had in the bank at the beginning of the period) and had cash on hand on Oct. 18 of nearly $170,000.  McConnell had not collected or spent enough to have to file a report.

Tauscher's 10th District is 45.1 percent Democratic and 32.5 percent Republican. Her FEC report showed she had received $710,000 in the election cycle, spent  nearly $470,000 and had cash on hand of about $250,000 on Oct. 18.

Her opponent, Darcy Linn, a veteran Republican campaigner in San Francisco before moving to Pleasant Hill, has reportedly collected $5,800, spent $4,600 and had $1,253 in the bank on Oct. 18.

ASSEMBLY RACES

The only thing close to an exciting Assembly race is in the 15th between Houston, seeking his third and last term in the state's lower house.

Coleman, a consumer attorney, got a lot of money for a longshot in the early part of the fall campaign. He did well with it, apparently, well enough to be getting nearly half a million from the State Democratic Party and other party resources in the last few weeks. Much of his money is coming from other attorneys.

It may not be enough to give him a win, but it is forcing the Republicans to try to match that for Houston. Late money is still pouring in to both candidates.

Houston, according to his campaign finance report, had collected $980,000 so far this  year, to Sept. 30. He'd spent $777,000 and had $451,000. The figures include what he had left over from last year.

Coleman's report indicated he had collected more than $170,000, spent $202,000 through Oct. 18, before the big push started.  His money appears to be coming from fellow attorneys and some labor unions, as well as state and local Democratic entities.

The district is 40.3 percent Republican and 38.1 percent Democratic. Since Republicans are known for being better at getting out the vote, it would appear Houston is going to keep his seat.

The 11th District race might have had some element of excitement at the beginning o fthe year since it was an open seat, with Democrat Joe Canciamilla being termed out. But it was essentially won in the primary by outgoing county supervisor DeSaulnier, a Concord Democrat. DeSaulnier had collected about $450,000 so far this year and spent $638,000, mostly in the primary. He had about $85,000 left over and no doubt could  have gotten much more if he'd needed it.

But neither of his two opponents -- Republican Arne Simenson, an Antioch city councilman, and Libertarian Cory Nott of Concord -- has collected or spent enough to warrant having to file a finance report.

In the 14th District, still dominated by Berkeley politics although it now has more voters in Contra Costa than in Alameda County, incumbent Democrat Lori Hancock also has a walk-in to her third and last term.

Hancock had collected $168,000 and spent $134,000 by Sept. 30, with about $85,000 left. Her lone opponent, Leigh Wolf, 20, lives in Lafayette and hasn't filed a finance report.

Further information, from the candidates' points of view, can be obtained from those who have websites. The sites often include maps of the districts. Late campaign finance information can usually be obtained from www.fec.gov for Congress and www.ss.ca.gov for the Assembly.

Contra Costa has no state Senate races this year. Both senators representing portions of the county, Tom Torlakson, D-Antioch, and Don Perata, D-Oakland, term out in 2008 and are expected to seek statewide positions.

--11/3/06--

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